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Post vs 1980 Wien — Landesliga - Wien 2019

Post
Post
FT
2 – 3
1980 Wien
1980 Wien
10/15/2022Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 9Sportplatz Post

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Post37%
×Draw23%
1980 Wien40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Post
1.62
1980 Wien
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 47 away

creates per match

Post
1.20
1980 Wien
1.40

allows per match

Post
2.02
1980 Wien
2.04

finishing

Post+0.00on par
1980 Wien+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Post ↓

1980 Wien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Post or draw
60%
Post or 1980 Wien
77%
Draw or 1980 Wien
63%

Winning margin

Post wins by 2+
18%
1980 Wien wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Post 1+ goals
80%
Post 2+ goals
48%
Post 3+ goals
22%
1980 Wien 1+ goals
82%
1980 Wien 2+ goals
51%
1980 Wien 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Post (draw refunded)
48%
1980 Wien (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Post at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.02 · 45 matches

1980 Wien away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.04 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Post attack 1.20 + 1980 Wien defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.62

1980 Wien attack 1.40 + Post defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Post scores more
37%
level
23%
1980 Wien scores more
40%

1980 Wien at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "1980 Wien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: Post 2–3 1980 Wien

1980 Wien beat Post 3-2 in Landesliga - Wien on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Post in Wien.