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1980 Wien vs Post — Landesliga - Wien 2019

1980 Wien
1980 Wien
FT
5 – 1
Post
Post
5/6/2023Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 24Franz Koci Anlage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

1980 Wien62%
×Draw19%
Post19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1980 Wien
2.48
Post
1.33

1980 Wien creates 86% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 43 away

creates per match

1980 Wien
2.17
Post
1.12

allows per match

1980 Wien
1.53
Post
2.79

finishing

1980 Wien+0.00on par
Post+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1980 Wien ↓

Post →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

1980 Wien or draw
81%
1980 Wien or Post
81%
Draw or Post
38%

Winning margin

1980 Wien wins by 2+
41%
Post wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

1980 Wien 1+ goals
92%
1980 Wien 2+ goals
70%
1980 Wien 3+ goals
44%
Post 1+ goals
74%
Post 2+ goals
38%
Post 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

1980 Wien (draw refunded)
76%
Post (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1980 Wien at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.53 · 47 matches

Post away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.79 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1980 Wien attack 2.17 + Post defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.48

Post attack 1.12 + 1980 Wien defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

1980 Wien scores more
62%
level
19%
Post scores more
19%

1980 Wien at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "1980 Wien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Wien: 1980 Wien 5–1 Post

1980 Wien beat Post 5-1 in Landesliga - Wien on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Franz Koci Anlage in Wien.