Portuguesa Santista U20 1–3 Palmeiras U20

Portuguesa Santista U20

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Palmeiras U20

Giulio 14'

J. V. Oliveira dos Santos 90+7'

Gabriel Vareta 76'

Daniel Silva 57'

6/22/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 1Estádio Úlrico Mursa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Portuguesa Santista U2029%

×Draw23%

Palmeiras U2048%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portuguesa Santista U20Expected goals in this matchPalmeiras U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.76

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.31

Palmeiras U20

1.76

Palmeiras U20 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 27 away

1.89

creates per match

2.15

1.37

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.89

Palmeiras U20

2.15

allows per match

Portuguesa Santista U20

1.37

Palmeiras U20

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portuguesa Santista U20+0.00on par

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa Santista U20 ↓

Palmeiras U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Portuguesa Santista U20 or draw

52%

Portuguesa Santista U20 or Palmeiras U20

77%

Draw or Palmeiras U20

71%

Winning margin

Portuguesa Santista U20 wins by 2+

12%

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Portuguesa Santista U20 1+ goals

73%

Portuguesa Santista U20 2+ goals

38%

Portuguesa Santista U20 3+ goals

14%

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals

83%

Palmeiras U20 2+ goals

52%

Palmeiras U20 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa Santista U20 (draw refunded)

37%

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa Santista U20 at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Palmeiras U20 away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.74 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa Santista U20 attack 1.89 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.31

Palmeiras U20 attack 2.15 + Portuguesa Santista U20 defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Portuguesa Santista U20 scores more

29%

level

23%

Palmeiras U20 scores more

48%

Palmeiras U20 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

Giulio

57'

Daniel Silva

76'

Gabriel Vareta

90+7'

J. V. Oliveira dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff