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Palmeiras U20 vs Portuguesa Santista U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Palmeiras U20
Palmeiras U20
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Portuguesa Santista U20
Portuguesa Santista U20
Daniel Silva 67', 47'
J. V. Oliveira dos Santos 24'
L. Arthur 8'
A. Jarleysom 2'
Unknown 52', 50'
8/10/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 6Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Palmeiras U2084%
×Draw11%
Portuguesa Santista U206%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Palmeiras U20
3.24
Portuguesa Santista U20
0.76

Palmeiras U20 creates 326% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 21 away

creates per match

Palmeiras U20
3.96
Portuguesa Santista U20
1.00

allows per match

Palmeiras U20
0.52
Portuguesa Santista U20
2.52

finishing

Palmeiras U20+0.00on par
Portuguesa Santista U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 75Under: 2575%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 51No: 4951%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palmeiras U20 ↓

Portuguesa Santista U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–15%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (11%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Palmeiras U20 or draw
94%
Palmeiras U20 or Portuguesa Santista U20
89%
Draw or Portuguesa Santista U20
16%

Winning margin

Palmeiras U20 wins by 2+
66%
Portuguesa Santista U20 wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Palmeiras U20 1+ goals
96%
Palmeiras U20 2+ goals
83%
Palmeiras U20 3+ goals
61%
Portuguesa Santista U20 1+ goals
53%
Portuguesa Santista U20 2+ goals
18%
Portuguesa Santista U20 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Palmeiras U20 (draw refunded)
94%
Portuguesa Santista U20 (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palmeiras U20 at home — creates 3.96, concedes 0.52 · 27 matches

Portuguesa Santista U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palmeiras U20 attack 3.96 + Portuguesa Santista U20 defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 3.24

Portuguesa Santista U20 attack 1.00 + Palmeiras U20 defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Palmeiras U20 scores more
84%
level
11%
Portuguesa Santista U20 scores more
6%

Palmeiras U20 at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Palmeiras U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. Jarleysom
8'
L. Arthur
24'
J. V. Oliveira dos Santos
47'
Daniel Silva
50'
52'
67'
Daniel Silva

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Palmeiras U20 5–2 Portuguesa Santista U20

Palmeiras U20 beat Portuguesa Santista U20 5-2 in Paulista - U20 on August 10, 2024.

Goals: A. Jarleysom (2'), L. Arthur (8'), J. V. Oliveira dos Santos (24'), Daniel Silva (47', 67'), ? (50', 52').

The match was played at Academia de Futebol 2 Palmeiras in São Paulo, São Paulo.