Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Portuguesa Londrinense vs City London — League #1138 2026

Portuguesa Londrinense
Portuguesa Londrinense
FT
1 – 2
City London
City London
9/28/2025League #1138League #1138 · Round 5Estádio Municipal Uady Chaiben

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portuguesa Londrinense31%
×Draw25%
City London44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa Londrinense
1.21
City London
1.50

City London creates 24% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Portuguesa Londrinense
1.43
City London
1.00

allows per match

Portuguesa Londrinense
2.00
City London
1.00

finishing

Portuguesa Londrinense+0.00on par
City London+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa Londrinense ↓

City London →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Portuguesa Londrinense or draw
56%
Portuguesa Londrinense or City London
75%
Draw or City London
69%

Winning margin

Portuguesa Londrinense wins by 2+
13%
City London wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Portuguesa Londrinense 1+ goals
70%
Portuguesa Londrinense 2+ goals
34%
Portuguesa Londrinense 3+ goals
12%
City London 1+ goals
78%
City London 2+ goals
44%
City London 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa Londrinense (draw refunded)
41%
City London (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa Londrinense at home — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

City London away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa Londrinense attack 1.43 + City London defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

City London attack 1.00 + Portuguesa Londrinense defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portuguesa Londrinense scores more
31%
level
25%
City London scores more
44%

City London at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "City London will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portuguesa Londrinense vs City London

City London beat Portuguesa Londrinense 2-1 in League #1138 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Uady Chaiben in Londrina, Paraná.