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City London vs Portuguesa Londrinense — League #1138 2026

City London
City London
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Portuguesa Londrinense
Portuguesa Londrinense
9/14/2025League #1138League #1138 · Round 3Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

City London54%
×Draw34%
Portuguesa Londrinense13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

City London
1.09
Portuguesa Londrinense
0.38

City London creates 187% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

City London
1.33
Portuguesa Londrinense
0.43

allows per match

City London
0.33
Portuguesa Londrinense
0.86

finishing

City London+0.00on par
Portuguesa Londrinense+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Under
  • Under82
  • Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

City London ↓

Portuguesa Londrinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
43%57%2.5
18%82%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

City London or draw
87%
City London or Portuguesa Londrinense
66%
Draw or Portuguesa Londrinense
46%

Winning margin

City London wins by 2+
23%
Portuguesa Londrinense wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

City London 1+ goals
66%
City London 2+ goals
30%
City London 3+ goals
10%
Portuguesa Londrinense 1+ goals
32%
Portuguesa Londrinense 2+ goals
6%
Portuguesa Londrinense 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

City London (draw refunded)
81%
Portuguesa Londrinense (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
11%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

City London at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Portuguesa Londrinense away — creates 0.43, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

City London attack 1.33 + Portuguesa Londrinense defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Portuguesa Londrinense attack 0.43 + City London defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

City London scores more
54%
level
34%
Portuguesa Londrinense scores more
13%

City London at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "City London will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: City London vs Portuguesa Londrinense

City London and Portuguesa Londrinense drew 0-0 in League #1138 on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Jacy Scaff in Londrina, Paraná.