Portuguesa FC 0–1 Monagas SC: Result & Stats

Portuguesa FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Monagas SC

7/25/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 4Estadio General José Antonio Páez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Portuguesa FC41%

×Draw28%

Monagas SC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portuguesa FCExpected goals in this matchMonagas SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.11

Portuguesa FC

1.29

Monagas SC

1.11

Portuguesa FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 125 away

1.11

creates per match

1.20

1.02

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Portuguesa FC

1.11

Monagas SC

1.20

allows per match

Portuguesa FC

1.02

Monagas SC

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Monagas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

Monagas SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw

68%

Portuguesa FC or Monagas SC

72%

Draw or Monagas SC

59%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+

18%

Monagas SC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals

72%

Portuguesa FC 2+ goals

37%

Portuguesa FC 3+ goals

14%

Monagas SC 1+ goals

67%

Monagas SC 2+ goals

30%

Monagas SC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)

56%

Monagas SC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.02 · 132 matches

Monagas SC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 1.11 + Monagas SC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.29

Monagas SC attack 1.20 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more

41%

level

28%

Monagas SC scores more

32%

Portuguesa FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Portuguesa FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff