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Monagas SC vs Portuguesa FC — Primera División 2018

Monagas SC
Monagas SC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
2/16/2025Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 4Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Monagas SC45%
×Draw27%
Portuguesa FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Monagas SC
1.40
Portuguesa FC
1.03

Monagas SC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 129 away

creates per match

Monagas SC
1.49
Portuguesa FC
0.90

allows per match

Monagas SC
1.16
Portuguesa FC
1.31

finishing

Monagas SC+0.00on par
Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Monagas SC ↓

Portuguesa FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Monagas SC or draw
72%
Monagas SC or Portuguesa FC
73%
Draw or Portuguesa FC
55%

Winning margin

Monagas SC wins by 2+
22%
Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Monagas SC 1+ goals
75%
Monagas SC 2+ goals
41%
Monagas SC 3+ goals
17%
Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
64%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
28%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Monagas SC (draw refunded)
62%
Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Monagas SC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.16 · 127 matches

Portuguesa FC away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Monagas SC attack 1.49 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Portuguesa FC attack 0.90 + Monagas SC defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Monagas SC scores more
45%
level
27%
Portuguesa FC scores more
28%

Monagas SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Monagas SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Monagas SC 0–2 Portuguesa FC

Portuguesa FC beat Monagas SC 2-0 in Primera División on February 16, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental de Maturín in Maturín.