Portuguesa FC 3–1 Metropolitanos FC: Result & Stats

Portuguesa FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Metropolitanos FC

3/20/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 8Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Portuguesa FC40%

×Draw28%

Metropolitanos FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portuguesa FCExpected goals in this matchMetropolitanos FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.06

Portuguesa FC

1.24

Metropolitanos FC

1.06

Portuguesa FC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 140 away

1.10

creates per match

1.07

1.04

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Portuguesa FC

1.10

Metropolitanos FC

1.07

allows per match

Portuguesa FC

1.04

Metropolitanos FC

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

Metropolitanos FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw

69%

Portuguesa FC or Metropolitanos FC

72%

Draw or Metropolitanos FC

60%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+

18%

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals

71%

Portuguesa FC 2+ goals

35%

Portuguesa FC 3+ goals

13%

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals

65%

Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals

29%

Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)

56%

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 139 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.37 · 140 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 1.10 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.07 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more

40%

level

28%

Metropolitanos FC scores more

31%

Portuguesa FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portuguesa FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff