Metropolitanos FC 2–1 Portuguesa FC: Result & Stats

Metropolitanos FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Portuguesa FC

9/13/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 8Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Metropolitanos FC47%

×Draw27%

Portuguesa FC27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metropolitanos FCExpected goals in this matchPortuguesa FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.01

Metropolitanos FC

1.43

Portuguesa FC

1.01

Metropolitanos FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 137 away

1.49

creates per match

0.91

1.10

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC

1.49

Portuguesa FC

0.91

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC

1.10

Portuguesa FC

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Portuguesa FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw

73%

Metropolitanos FC or Portuguesa FC

73%

Draw or Portuguesa FC

53%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+

23%

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals

76%

Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals

42%

Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals

17%

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals

64%

Portuguesa FC 2+ goals

27%

Portuguesa FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)

64%

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.10 · 139 matches

Portuguesa FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.49 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.43

Portuguesa FC attack 0.91 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more

47%

level

27%

Portuguesa FC scores more

27%

Metropolitanos FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff