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Portuguesa FC vs Fundación Lara Deportiva — Copa Venezuela 2024

Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
6/20/2024Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Group Stage - 3Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portuguesa FC33%
×Draw27%
Fundación Lara Deportiva40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa FC
1.17
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.33

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 14% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Portuguesa FC
0.67
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.33

allows per match

Portuguesa FC
1.33
Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.67

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par
Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

Fundación Lara Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw
60%
Portuguesa FC or Fundación Lara Deportiva
73%
Draw or Fundación Lara Deportiva
67%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
13%
Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
69%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
33%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
11%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
74%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
38%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
45%
Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 0.67 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.33 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more
33%
level
27%
Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
40%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Venezuela: Portuguesa FC 0–1 Fundación Lara Deportiva

Fundación Lara Deportiva beat Portuguesa FC 1-0 in Copa Venezuela on June 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.