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Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Portuguesa FC — Copa Venezuela 2024

Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
7/3/2024Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Group Stage - 6Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva48%
×Draw23%
Portuguesa FC29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.84
Portuguesa FC
1.40

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 31% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.43
Portuguesa FC
1.50

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.29
Portuguesa FC
2.25

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par
Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Portuguesa FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw
71%
Fundación Lara Deportiva or Portuguesa FC
77%
Draw or Portuguesa FC
52%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
26%
Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
84%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
55%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
28%
Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
75%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
41%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
62%
Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Portuguesa FC away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.43 + Portuguesa FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.84

Portuguesa FC attack 1.50 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
48%
level
23%
Portuguesa FC scores more
29%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Venezuela: Fundación Lara Deportiva 2–3 Portuguesa FC

Portuguesa FC beat Fundación Lara Deportiva 3-2 in Copa Venezuela on July 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.