Portuguesa FC 0–1 Caracas FC: Result & Stats

Portuguesa FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Caracas FC

8/7/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 3Estadio Rafael Agustín Tovar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Portuguesa FC33%

×Draw29%

Caracas FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portuguesa FCExpected goals in this matchCaracas FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.13

Portuguesa FC

1.05

Caracas FC

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 146 away

1.10

creates per match

1.22

1.04

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Portuguesa FC

1.10

Caracas FC

1.22

allows per match

Portuguesa FC

1.04

Caracas FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

Caracas FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw

63%

Portuguesa FC or Caracas FC

71%

Draw or Caracas FC

67%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+

13%

Caracas FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals

65%

Portuguesa FC 2+ goals

28%

Portuguesa FC 3+ goals

9%

Caracas FC 1+ goals

68%

Caracas FC 2+ goals

31%

Caracas FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)

47%

Caracas FC (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 139 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 1.10 + Caracas FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Caracas FC attack 1.22 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more

33%

level

29%

Caracas FC scores more

37%

Caracas FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff