Caracas FC 0–1 Portuguesa FC: Result & Stats

Caracas FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Portuguesa FC

2/16/2024

Primera División · Apertura - 3Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Caracas FC49%

×Draw26%

Portuguesa FC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Caracas FCExpected goals in this matchPortuguesa FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.96

Caracas FC

1.47

Portuguesa FC

0.96

Caracas FC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 137 away

1.58

creates per match

0.91

1.01

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Caracas FC

1.58

Portuguesa FC

0.91

allows per match

Caracas FC

1.01

Portuguesa FC

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Portuguesa FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw

75%

Caracas FC or Portuguesa FC

74%

Draw or Portuguesa FC

51%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+

24%

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals

77%

Caracas FC 2+ goals

43%

Caracas FC 3+ goals

18%

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals

62%

Portuguesa FC 2+ goals

25%

Portuguesa FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)

66%

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.01 · 144 matches

Portuguesa FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.58 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Portuguesa FC attack 0.91 + Caracas FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Caracas FC scores more

49%

level

26%

Portuguesa FC scores more

25%

Caracas FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff