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Portuguesa FC vs Atletico Venezuela — Primera División 2018

Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
CANC
20:00
Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
6/3/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 18Estadio General José Antonio Páez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Portuguesa FC43%
×Draw28%
Atletico Venezuela30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa FC
1.31
Atletico Venezuela
1.04

Portuguesa FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 60 away

creates per match

Portuguesa FC
1.10
Atletico Venezuela
1.03

allows per match

Portuguesa FC
1.04
Atletico Venezuela
1.53

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par
Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

Atletico Venezuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw
70%
Portuguesa FC or Atletico Venezuela
72%
Draw or Atletico Venezuela
57%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
20%
Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
73%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
38%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
14%
Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
65%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
28%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
59%
Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 139 matches

Atletico Venezuela away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 1.10 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.03 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more
43%
level
28%
Atletico Venezuela scores more
30%

Portuguesa FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portuguesa FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Portuguesa FC host Atletico Venezuela

June 3, 2020: Portuguesa FC take on Atletico Venezuela in Primera División. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Portuguesa FC host Atletico Venezuela at Estadio General José Antonio Páez.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.