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Atletico Venezuela vs Portuguesa FC — Primera División 2018

Atletico Venezuela
Atletico Venezuela
CANC
20:00
Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
10/21/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 37Estadio Olímpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Atletico Venezuela43%
×Draw27%
Portuguesa FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Venezuela
1.33
Portuguesa FC
1.07

Atletico Venezuela creates 24% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 137 away

creates per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.29
Portuguesa FC
0.91

allows per match

Atletico Venezuela
1.24
Portuguesa FC
1.36

finishing

Atletico Venezuela+0.00on par
Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Venezuela ↓

Portuguesa FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Venezuela or draw
70%
Atletico Venezuela or Portuguesa FC
73%
Draw or Portuguesa FC
57%

Winning margin

Atletico Venezuela wins by 2+
20%
Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atletico Venezuela 1+ goals
74%
Atletico Venezuela 2+ goals
38%
Atletico Venezuela 3+ goals
15%
Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
66%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
29%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atletico Venezuela (draw refunded)
59%
Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Venezuela at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 59 matches

Portuguesa FC away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.36 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Venezuela attack 1.29 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Portuguesa FC attack 0.91 + Atletico Venezuela defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Atletico Venezuela scores more
43%
level
27%
Portuguesa FC scores more
30%

Atletico Venezuela at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atletico Venezuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atletico Venezuela face Portuguesa FC (Primera División)

Primera División returns with Atletico Venezuela hosting Portuguesa FC. Match starts October 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atletico Venezuela host Portuguesa FC at Estadio Olímpico de la UCV.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.