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Portugalete vs Deportivo Alavés III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Portugalete
Portugalete
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
1/11/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Portugalete54%
×Draw25%
Deportivo Alavés III21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugalete
1.59
Deportivo Alavés III
0.88

Portugalete creates 81% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 51 away

creates per match

Portugalete
1.77
Deportivo Alavés III
0.94

allows per match

Portugalete
0.81
Deportivo Alavés III
1.41

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

Deportivo Alavés III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw
79%
Portugalete or Deportivo Alavés III
75%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés III
46%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+
29%
Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals
80%
Portugalete 2+ goals
47%
Portugalete 3+ goals
21%
Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)
72%
Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.81 · 100 matches

Deportivo Alavés III away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 1.77 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.59

Deportivo Alavés III attack 0.94 + Portugalete defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portugalete scores more
54%
level
25%
Deportivo Alavés III scores more
21%

Portugalete at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Portugalete 2–1 Deportivo Alavés III

Portugalete beat Deportivo Alavés III 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on January 11, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Florida in Portugalete.