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Deportivo Alavés III vs Portugalete — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Deportivo Alavés III
Deportivo Alavés III
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Portugalete
Portugalete
5/11/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Deportivo Alavés III37%
×Draw26%
Portugalete36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés III
1.31
Portugalete
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 98 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés III
1.65
Portugalete
1.56

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés III
1.00
Portugalete
0.98

finishing

Deportivo Alavés III+0.00on par
Portugalete+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés III ↓

Portugalete →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés III or draw
64%
Deportivo Alavés III or Portugalete
74%
Draw or Portugalete
63%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés III wins by 2+
17%
Portugalete wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés III 1+ goals
73%
Deportivo Alavés III 2+ goals
38%
Deportivo Alavés III 3+ goals
14%
Portugalete 1+ goals
72%
Portugalete 2+ goals
37%
Portugalete 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés III (draw refunded)
51%
Portugalete (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés III at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.00 · 51 matches

Portugalete away — creates 1.56, concedes 0.98 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés III attack 1.65 + Portugalete defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.31

Portugalete attack 1.56 + Deportivo Alavés III defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Deportivo Alavés III scores more
37%
level
26%
Portugalete scores more
36%

Deportivo Alavés III at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4: Deportivo Alavés III 1–1 Portugalete

Deportivo Alavés III and Portugalete drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.