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Portugal vs Sweden — Friendlies 2026

Portugal
Portugal
FT
5 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Sweden
Sweden
3/21/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Portugal66%
×Draw19%
Sweden15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal
2.25
Sweden
0.97

Portugal creates 132% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Portugal
2.69
Sweden
1.00

allows per match

Portugal
0.94
Sweden
1.80

finishing

Portugal+0.00on par
Sweden+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal ↓

Sweden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Portugal or draw
85%
Portugal or Sweden
81%
Draw or Sweden
34%

Winning margin

Portugal wins by 2+
43%
Sweden wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Portugal 1+ goals
89%
Portugal 2+ goals
65%
Portugal 3+ goals
39%
Sweden 1+ goals
62%
Sweden 2+ goals
25%
Sweden 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Portugal (draw refunded)
81%
Sweden (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Sweden away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal attack 2.69 + Sweden defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.25

Sweden attack 1.00 + Portugal defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Portugal scores more
66%
level
19%
Sweden scores more
15%

Portugal at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Portugal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portugal vs Sweden

Portugal beat Sweden 5-2 in Friendlies on March 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques in Guimarães.