Portugal 3–0 Sweden: Result & Stats

Portugal

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Sweden

10/14/2020

UEFA Nations League · League A - 4Estádio José Alvalade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Portugal57%

×Draw22%

Sweden21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortugalExpected goals in this matchSweden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.08

Portugal

1.94

Sweden

1.08

Portugal creates 80% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 11 away

2.15

creates per match

1.55

0.62

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Portugal

2.15

Sweden

1.55

allows per match

Portugal

0.62

Sweden

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal+0.00on par

Sweden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal ↓

Sweden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Portugal or draw

79%

Portugal or Sweden

78%

Draw or Sweden

43%

Winning margin

Portugal wins by 2+

34%

Sweden wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Portugal 1+ goals

86%

Portugal 2+ goals

58%

Portugal 3+ goals

30%

Sweden 1+ goals

66%

Sweden 2+ goals

29%

Sweden 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Portugal (draw refunded)

73%

Sweden (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Sweden away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal attack 2.15 + Sweden defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.94

Sweden attack 1.55 + Portugal defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Portugal scores more

57%

level

22%

Sweden scores more

21%

Portugal at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Portugal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff