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Portugal vs Rep. Of Ireland — Friendlies 2026

Portugal
Portugal
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rep. Of Ireland
Rep. Of Ireland
Cristiano Ronaldo 60', 50'
João Félix 18'
6/11/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Estádio Municipal de Aveiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Portugal63%
×Draw21%
Rep. Of Ireland15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal
1.94
Rep. Of Ireland
0.83

Portugal creates 134% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

creates per match

Portugal
2.69
Rep. Of Ireland
0.73

allows per match

Portugal
0.94
Rep. Of Ireland
1.18

finishing

Portugal+0.00on par
Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Portugal or draw
85%
Portugal or Rep. Of Ireland
79%
Draw or Rep. Of Ireland
37%

Winning margin

Portugal wins by 2+
38%
Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Portugal 1+ goals
86%
Portugal 2+ goals
58%
Portugal 3+ goals
30%
Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals
56%
Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals
20%
Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Portugal (draw refunded)
80%
Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal at home — creates 2.69, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal attack 2.69 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.94

Rep. Of Ireland attack 0.73 + Portugal defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Portugal scores more
63%
level
21%
Rep. Of Ireland scores more
15%

Portugal at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Portugal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
Cristiano RonaldoPortugalPortugal · F
9.3

Match Events

18'
João Félix↳ Bruno Fernandes
46'
Danilo Pereira← Pepe
46'
Nélson Semedo← Diogo Dalot
46'
Rúben Neves← João Félix
46'
Nuno Mendes← João Cancelo
46'
Diogo Jota← Rafael Leão
50'
Cristiano Ronaldo↳ Rúben Neves
53'
M. Johnston← T. Parrott
53'
T. Cannon← A. Idah
53'
C. O'Dowda← R. Brady
55'
Diogo JotaPenalty cancelled
60'
Cristiano Ronaldo↳ Diogo Jota
70'
M. Doherty← S. Coleman
70'
J. Knight← S. Szmodics
77'
Matheus Nunes← João Neves
83'
M. Sykes← W. Smallbone

Possession

69%Portugal

Shots

20Portugal

Pass accuracy

53%Portugal

Statistics

PortugalRep.
Overview
69%Possession31%
20Total Shots5
7Corners2
6Fouls9
Shots
20Total Shots5
9On Target1
4Off Target2
7Blocked2
11Inside Box5
9Outside Box0
Passing
69%Possession31%
773Total Passes344
721Accurate Passes284
93%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
6Fouls9
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Portugal vs Rep. Of Ireland

Portugal beat Rep. Of Ireland 3-0 in Friendlies on June 11, 2024.

Goals: João Félix (18'), Cristiano Ronaldo (50', 60').

Portugal controlled possession (69%) and registered 20 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Aveiro in Aveiro.