Portugal 2–1 Rep. Of Ireland: Result & Stats

Portugal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rep. Of Ireland

Cristiano Ronaldo 90+6', 89'

J. Egan 45'

9/1/2021

League #32 · Group Stage - 4Estádio Do Algarve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Portugal39%

×Draw26%

Rep. Of Ireland35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortugalExpected goals in this matchRep. Of Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.31

Portugal

1.40

Rep. Of Ireland

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.80

creates per match

1.43

1.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Portugal

1.80

Rep. Of Ireland

1.43

allows per match

Portugal

1.20

Rep. Of Ireland

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal+0.00on par

Rep. Of Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal ↓

Rep. Of Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Portugal or draw

65%

Portugal or Rep. Of Ireland

74%

Draw or Rep. Of Ireland

61%

Winning margin

Portugal wins by 2+

18%

Rep. Of Ireland wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Portugal 1+ goals

75%

Portugal 2+ goals

41%

Portugal 3+ goals

17%

Rep. Of Ireland 1+ goals

73%

Rep. Of Ireland 2+ goals

38%

Rep. Of Ireland 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Portugal (draw refunded)

53%

Rep. Of Ireland (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Rep. Of Ireland away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal attack 1.80 + Rep. Of Ireland defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

Rep. Of Ireland attack 1.43 + Portugal defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Portugal scores more

39%

level

26%

Rep. Of Ireland scores more

35%

Portugal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Portugal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Cristiano Ronaldo

Portugal · F

8.5

Match Events

10'

Jeff Hendrick

12'

Cristiano RonaldoPenalty confirmed

33'

Dara O'Shea

35'

A. Omobamidele← D. OShea

45+2'

45'

46'

56'

62'

Nuno Mendes← Raphaël Guerreiro

62'

João Mário← Bruno Fernandes

72'

J. McClean← A. Connolly

73'

João Moutinho← João Palhinha

82'

Gonçalo Guedes← João Cancelo

89'

Cristiano Ronaldo↳ Gonçalo Guedes

90+7'

Cristiano Ronaldo

90'

J. Collins← A. Idah

90'

J. Molumby← J. McGrath

90+6'

Cristiano Ronaldo↳ João Mário

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortugalRep.

Overview

72%Possession28%

29Total Shots6

14Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

29Total Shots6

7On Target2

10Off Target4

12Blocked0

18Inside Box5

11Outside Box1

Passing

72%Possession28%

603Total Passes243

528Accurate Passes174

88%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls11

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0