Portugal 1–1 Poland: Result & Stats

Portugal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Poland

André Silva 33'

Arkadiusz Milik 66' (pen)

11/20/2018

UEFA Nations League · League A - 6Estádio D. Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Portugal65%

×Draw20%

Poland14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortugalExpected goals in this matchPoland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.83

Portugal

2.04

Poland

0.83

Portugal creates 146% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

2.08

creates per match

1.09

0.58

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Portugal

2.08

Poland

1.09

allows per match

Portugal

0.58

Poland

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal+0.00on par

Poland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal ↓

Poland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Portugal or draw

86%

Portugal or Poland

80%

Draw or Poland

35%

Winning margin

Portugal wins by 2+

41%

Poland wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Portugal 1+ goals

87%

Portugal 2+ goals

60%

Portugal 3+ goals

33%

Poland 1+ goals

56%

Poland 2+ goals

20%

Poland 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Portugal (draw refunded)

82%

Poland (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal at home — creates 2.08, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Poland away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal attack 2.08 + Poland defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Poland attack 1.09 + Portugal defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Portugal scores more

65%

level

20%

Poland scores more

14%

Portugal at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Portugal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Thiago Cionek

28'

Jan Bednarek

33'

André Silva↳ Renato Sanches

61'

João Mário← Raphaël Guerreiro

63'

Danilo Pereira

64'

André Silva

66'

Arkadiusz MilikPenalty

70'

Bruma← Rafa Silva

75'

Jacek Góralski← Mateusz Klich

78'

Przemysław Frankowski

79'

Damian Kądzior← Kamil Grosicki

87'

Éder← André Silva

90'

João Mário

90'

Damian Szymański← Piotr Zieliński

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PortugalPoland

Overview

51%Possession49%

2Total Shots8

5Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

2Total Shots8

1On Target2

1Off Target6

Passing

51%Possession49%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides0