Poland 2–3 Portugal: Result & Stats

Poland

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Portugal

Jakub Błaszczykowski 77'

Krzysztof Piątek 18'

Bernardo Silva 52'

Kamil Glik 43' (OG)

André Silva 32'

10/11/2018

UEFA Nations League · League A - 3Slaski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Poland24%

×Draw26%

Portugal51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PolandExpected goals in this matchPortugal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.55

Poland

0.97

Portugal

1.55

Portugal creates 60% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

1.18

creates per match

1.46

1.64

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Poland

1.18

Portugal

1.46

allows per match

Poland

1.64

Portugal

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Poland+0.00on par

Portugal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Poland ↓

Portugal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Poland or draw

49%

Poland or Portugal

74%

Draw or Portugal

76%

Winning margin

Poland wins by 2+

8%

Portugal wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Poland 1+ goals

62%

Poland 2+ goals

25%

Poland 3+ goals

7%

Portugal 1+ goals

79%

Portugal 2+ goals

46%

Portugal 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Poland (draw refunded)

32%

Portugal (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Poland at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Portugal away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Poland attack 1.18 + Portugal defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.97

Portugal attack 1.46 + Poland defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Poland scores more

24%

level

26%

Portugal scores more

51%

Portugal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Portugal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Krzysztof Piątek↳ Rafał Kurzawa

32'

André Silva↳ Pizzi

37'

André Silva

43'

Kamil GlikOwn goal

46'

Tomasz Kędziora← Bartosz Bereszyński

48'

Mateusz Klich

52'

Bernardo Silva

62'

Grzegorz Krychowiak

64'

Kamil Grosicki← Rafał Kurzawa

64'

Jakub Błaszczykowski← Mateusz Klich

67'

William Carvalho

74'

Pepe

75'

Renato Sanches← Pizzi

77'

Jakub Błaszczykowski

77'

Bernardo Silva

85'

Danilo Pereira← Rafa Silva

90'

Bruno Fernandes← Bernardo Silva

Possession

Shots

Statistics

PolandPortugal

Overview

46%Possession54%

5Total Shots12

4Corners6

15Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots12

3On Target7

2Off Target5

Passing

46%Possession54%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls11

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

3Offsides4