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Portugal U19 vs Sweden U19 — Friendlies 2026

Portugal U19
Portugal U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sweden U19
Sweden U19
G. Silva 55'
E. Felicissimo 13'
10/9/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portugal U1957%
×Draw23%
Sweden U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal U19
1.83
Sweden U19
1.00

Portugal U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Portugal U19
2.33
Sweden U19
0.33

allows per match

Portugal U19
1.67
Sweden U19
1.33

finishing

Portugal U19+0.00on par
Sweden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U19 ↓

Sweden U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Portugal U19 or draw
80%
Portugal U19 or Sweden U19
77%
Draw or Sweden U19
43%

Winning margin

Portugal U19 wins by 2+
32%
Sweden U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Portugal U19 1+ goals
84%
Portugal U19 2+ goals
54%
Portugal U19 3+ goals
28%
Sweden U19 1+ goals
63%
Sweden U19 2+ goals
26%
Sweden U19 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)
74%
Sweden U19 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U19 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Sweden U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U19 attack 2.33 + Sweden U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.83

Sweden U19 attack 0.33 + Portugal U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Portugal U19 scores more
57%
level
23%
Sweden U19 scores more
20%

Portugal U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Portugal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
E. Felicissimo
55'
G. Silva
Portugal
Sweden
Filipe Ramos
Manager: Filipe Ramos
A. Pettersson
Manager: A. Pettersson

Friendlies: Portugal U19 2–0 Sweden U19

Portugal U19 beat Sweden U19 2-0 in Friendlies on October 9, 2025.

Goals: E. Felicissimo (13'), G. Silva (55').