Portugal U19 1–0 Sweden U19: Result & Stats

Portugal U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sweden U19

João Neves 90+3'

3/22/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 2Estádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Portugal U1953%

×Draw23%

Sweden U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U19Expected goals in this matchSweden U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.18

Portugal U19

1.85

Sweden U19

1.18

Portugal U19 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

1.29

1.07

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Portugal U19

2.00

Sweden U19

1.29

allows per match

Portugal U19

1.07

Sweden U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U19+0.00on par

Sweden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U19 ↓

Sweden U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Portugal U19 or draw

76%

Portugal U19 or Sweden U19

77%

Draw or Sweden U19

47%

Winning margin

Portugal U19 wins by 2+

30%

Sweden U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Portugal U19 1+ goals

84%

Portugal U19 2+ goals

55%

Portugal U19 3+ goals

28%

Sweden U19 1+ goals

69%

Sweden U19 2+ goals

33%

Sweden U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Portugal U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Sweden U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Sweden U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U19 attack 2.00 + Sweden U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sweden U19 attack 1.29 + Portugal U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portugal U19 scores more

53%

level

23%

Sweden U19 scores more

24%

Portugal U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Portugal U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

K. Karlsson← W. Marshage

60'

Afonso Moreira← Youssef Chermiti

60'

Rodrigo Ribeiro← Diego Moreira

61'

Gustavo Sá← Mateus Fernandes

65'

65'

70'

71'

72'

Hugo Félix← Carlos Borges

81'

H. Felix

87'

Martim Marques← Gonçalo Esteves

89'

F. Eriksson← A. Ahmed Fatah

90+1'

A. Moreira

90+3'

João Neves

Portugal

Sweden

1

5

15

17

3

6

▼

Marshage

7

Swedberg

18

Björklund

10

▼

Fatah

11

▼

Madjed

19

▼

1

4

15

2

▼

Esteves

13

Muniz

6

Essugo

10

⚽

Neves

18

▼

Fernandes

11

▼

Borges

9

▼

Chermiti

7

▼

Moreira

Manager: Joaquim Milheiro

60'▲Afonso Moreira←▼Youssef Chermiti

60'▲Rodrigo Ribeiro←▼Diego Moreira

61'▲Gustavo Sá←▼Mateus Fernandes

72'▲Hugo Félix←▼Carlos Borges

87'▲Martim Marques←▼Gonçalo Esteves

Portugal U19 substitutes

17Moreira19Ribeiro8Sá20Félix5Marques3Ribeiro12Pinto16Félix14Justo

Manager: V. Eriksson

37'▲K. Karlsson←▼W. Marshage

65'▲J. Kanga←▼M. Madjed

65'▲R. Omorowa←▼D. Gül

89'▲F. Eriksson←▼A. Ahmed Fatah

Sweden U19 substitutes

13Karlsson8Kanga9Omorowa2Eriksson16Ahlstrand12Sandahl4Eklund14Bengtsson20Odefalk

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Portugal U19 1–0 Sweden U19

Portugal U19 beat Sweden U19 1-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 22, 2023.

Goals: João Neves (90+3').

The match was played at Estádio Do Vizela in Caldas de Vizela.

Portugal U19 vs Sweden U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Portugal U19 1–0 Sweden U19