Portugal U17 1–0 Germany U17: Result & Stats

Portugal U17

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Germany U17

A. Ferreirinha 10'

2/18/2026

Friendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Portugal U1757%

×Draw23%

Germany U1719%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portugal U17Expected goals in this matchGermany U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.90

Portugal U17

1.75

Germany U17

0.90

Portugal U17 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Portugal U17

2.00

Germany U17

1.00

allows per match

Portugal U17

0.80

Germany U17

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal U17+0.00on par

Germany U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal U17 ↓

Germany U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Portugal U17 or draw

81%

Portugal U17 or Germany U17

77%

Draw or Germany U17

43%

Winning margin

Portugal U17 wins by 2+

32%

Germany U17 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Portugal U17 1+ goals

83%

Portugal U17 2+ goals

52%

Portugal U17 3+ goals

25%

Germany U17 1+ goals

59%

Germany U17 2+ goals

23%

Germany U17 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Portugal U17 (draw refunded)

75%

Germany U17 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal U17 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Germany U17 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal U17 attack 2.00 + Germany U17 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Germany U17 attack 1.00 + Portugal U17 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Portugal U17 scores more

57%

level

23%

Germany U17 scores more

19%

Portugal U17 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Portugal U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. Ferreirinha

Portugal

Germany

Manager: Bino

Manager: M. Meister