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Germany U17 vs Portugal U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Germany U17
Germany U17
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Portugal U17
Portugal U17
3/26/2024UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 4Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Germany U1752%
×Draw19%
Portugal U1729%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Germany U17
2.65
Portugal U17
1.98

Germany U17 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

creates per match

Germany U17
3.94
Portugal U17
3.18

allows per match

Germany U17
0.78
Portugal U17
1.36

finishing

Germany U17+0.00on par
Portugal U17+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germany U17 ↓

Portugal U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Germany U17 or draw
71%
Germany U17 or Portugal U17
81%
Draw or Portugal U17
48%

Winning margin

Germany U17 wins by 2+
33%
Portugal U17 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Germany U17 1+ goals
93%
Germany U17 2+ goals
74%
Germany U17 3+ goals
48%
Portugal U17 1+ goals
86%
Portugal U17 2+ goals
59%
Portugal U17 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Germany U17 (draw refunded)
64%
Portugal U17 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germany U17 at home — creates 3.94, concedes 0.78 · 18 matches

Portugal U17 away — creates 3.18, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germany U17 attack 3.94 + Portugal U17 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.65

Portugal U17 attack 3.18 + Germany U17 defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Germany U17 scores more
52%
level
19%
Portugal U17 scores more
29%

Germany U17 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Germany U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification: Germany U17 2–3 Portugal U17

Portugal U17 beat Germany U17 3-2 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on March 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Vila Nova de Famalicão.