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Portsmouth vs Wrexham — Championship 2024

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
15:00
Wrexham
Wrexham
3/13/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 37Fratton Park
49%
Portsmouth
model favours
49%26%25%

Portsmouth sit 18, Wrexham 7 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Portsmouth49%
×Draw26%
Wrexham25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.50
Wrexham
1.01

Portsmouth creates 49% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.55
Wrexham
0.88

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.14
Wrexham
1.46

finishing

Portsmouth-0.39scores less
Wrexham+0.55scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
75%
Portsmouth or Wrexham
74%
Draw or Wrexham
51%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
24%
Wrexham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
78%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
44%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
19%
Wrexham 1+ goals
64%
Wrexham 2+ goals
27%
Wrexham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
66%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 19 matches

Wrexham away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.46 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.55 + Wrexham defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.50

Wrexham attack 0.88 + Portsmouth defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Portsmouth scores more
49%
level
26%
Wrexham scores more
25%

Portsmouth at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wrexham outscore their xG (1.8 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Portsmouth
Balanced
Wrexham
Balanced
47%Possession49%
72%Pass accuracy79%
12.0ShotsBiggest gap10.8
1.19xG1.25
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PortsmouthWrexham

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
Wrexham
DDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portsmouth vs Wrexham — Match Preview

Portsmouth face Wrexham on March 13, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Portsmouth host Wrexham at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.