Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Portsmouth vs Stoke City — Championship 2024

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
15:00
Stoke City
Stoke City
11/7/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 15Fratton Park
Big match
45%
Portsmouth
model favours
45%26%29%

Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
51%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Portsmouth45%
×Draw26%
Stoke City29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.43
Stoke City
1.10

Portsmouth creates 30% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 21 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.45
Stoke City
1.05

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.15
Stoke City
1.41

finishing

Portsmouth-0.39scores less
Stoke City-0.43scores less

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
71%
Portsmouth or Stoke City
74%
Draw or Stoke City
55%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
22%
Stoke City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
76%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
42%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
17%
Stoke City 1+ goals
67%
Stoke City 2+ goals
30%
Stoke City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
61%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.15 · 31 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.45 + Stoke City defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stoke City attack 1.05 + Portsmouth defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Portsmouth scores more
45%
level
26%
Stoke City scores more
29%

Portsmouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Portsmouth
Balanced
Stoke City
Balanced
49%Possession51%
73%Pass accuracy77%
12.2ShotsBiggest gap11.2
1.15xG1.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PortsmouthStoke City

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Portsmouth
0
Draws
3
Stoke City
Avg goals: 3.8BTTS: 60%
3–10–13–11–60–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
City
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portsmouth face Stoke City (Championship)

Championship returns with Portsmouth hosting Stoke City. Match starts November 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Portsmouth host Stoke City at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.