Portsmouth 0–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stoke City

H. Matthews 70' (OG)

10/25/2025

Championship · Round 12Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 21+ matches

Portsmouth45%

×Draw26%

Stoke City29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.10

Portsmouth

1.43

Stoke City

1.10

Portsmouth creates 30% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 21 away

1.45

creates per match

1.05

1.15

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.45

Stoke City

1.05

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.15

Stoke City

1.41

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.39scores less

Stoke City-0.43scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

71%

Portsmouth or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

55%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

22%

Stoke City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

76%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

42%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

17%

Stoke City 1+ goals

67%

Stoke City 2+ goals

30%

Stoke City 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

61%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.15 · 31 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.45 + Stoke City defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.43

Stoke City attack 1.05 + Portsmouth defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Portsmouth scores more

45%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

29%

Portsmouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

V. Johansson

Stoke City · G

7.9

Match Events

35'

41'

48'

61'

67'

T. Devlin← J. Williams

67'

J. Murphy← Yang Min-Hyuk

70'

H. MatthewsOwn goal

71'

J. Knight← H. Matthews

71'

T. Rigo← J. Bae

85'

M. Kosznovszky← A. Dozzell

87'

Maksym Talovierov

90+5'

T. Seko← L. Baker

90+1'

S. N'Zonzi← B. Pearson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthStoke

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots11

1.83Expected Goals (xG)0.90

6Corners2

8Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots11

3On Target2

7Off Target8

4Blocked1

10Inside Box9

4Outside Box2

Passing

48%Possession52%

327Total Passes377

223Accurate Passes281

68%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.84Goals Prevented0.84

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3