Portsmouth 3–1 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Stoke City

C. Ogilvie 49'

C. Lang 9'

C. Bishop 5' (pen)

B. Wilmot 27'

1/22/2025

Championship · Round 28Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Portsmouth46%

×Draw26%

Stoke City28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.07

Portsmouth

1.44

Stoke City

1.07

Portsmouth creates 35% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

1.43

creates per match

1.03

1.11

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.43

Stoke City

1.03

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.11

Stoke City

1.44

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.31scores less

Stoke City-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

72%

Portsmouth or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

54%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

22%

Stoke City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

76%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

42%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

18%

Stoke City 1+ goals

66%

Stoke City 2+ goals

29%

Stoke City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

62%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.11 · 33 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.44 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.43 + Stoke City defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Stoke City attack 1.03 + Portsmouth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Portsmouth scores more

46%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

28%

Portsmouth at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Ogilvie

Portsmouth · D

7.7

Match Events

5'

C. BishopPenalty

9'

C. Lang↳ N. Schmid

13'

Marlon Pack

27'

B. Wilmot↳ J. Wilson-Esbrand

31'

33'

49'

56'

59'

59'

M. Rose← J. Tchamadeu

59'

N. Lowe← A. Moran

67'

A. Dozzell← I. Hayden

67'

E. Stevens← J. Wilson-Esbrand

79'

Nathan Lowe

83'

Z. Swanson← M. Ritchie

88'

T. Devlin← J. Williams

90+2'

Viktor Johansson

90+1'

Wouter Burger

90+5'

B. Lawal← B. Wilmot

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthStoke

Overview

42%Possession58%

17Total Shots8

2.02Expected Goals (xG)0.67

7Corners1

12Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots8

7On Target2

7Off Target3

3Blocked3

9Inside Box6

8Outside Box2

Passing

42%Possession58%

289Total Passes409

193Accurate Passes314

67%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

-0.90Goals Prevented-0.90

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards5

1Offsides7

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Stoke City

Portsmouth beat Stoke City 3-1 in Championship on January 22, 2025.

Goals: C. Bishop (5' pen), C. Lang (9'), B. Wilmot (27'), C. Ogilvie (49').

Stoke City controlled possession (58%) and registered 8 shots to 17.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.

Portsmouth vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Stoke City