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Portsmouth vs Southampton — Championship 2024

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
15:00
Southampton
Southampton
2/27/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 34Fratton Park
Big match
43%
Portsmouth
model favours
43%26%31%

Southampton score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Portsmouth43%
×Draw26%
Southampton31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.48
Southampton
1.21

Portsmouth creates 22% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.47
Southampton
1.31

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.10
Southampton
1.48

finishing

Portsmouth-0.35scores less
Southampton+0.02on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
69%
Portsmouth or Southampton
74%
Draw or Southampton
57%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
21%
Southampton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
77%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
43%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
19%
Southampton 1+ goals
70%
Southampton 2+ goals
34%
Southampton 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
58%
Southampton (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.10 · 26 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.48 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.47 + Southampton defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.48

Southampton attack 1.31 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portsmouth scores more
43%
level
26%
Southampton scores more
31%

Portsmouth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Southampton have scored in 12 games running
  • 81% of Southampton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Southampton’s matches
  • Portsmouth sit 18, Southampton 4 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Portsmouth
Balanced
Southampton
Possession-dominant
48%Possession58%
72%Pass accuracy85%
12.3Shots13.8
1.15xGBiggest gap1.41
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PortsmouthSouthampton

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

0
Portsmouth
4
Draws
1
Southampton
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–10–00–42–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
Southampton
DDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portsmouth vs Southampton — Match Preview

Portsmouth face Southampton on February 27, 2027 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Portsmouth host Southampton at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.