Portsmouth 1–2 Plymouth: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Plymouth

A. Aouchiche 89'

R. Hardie 49'

M. Bundu 44'

3/12/2025

Championship · Round 37Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Portsmouth54%

×Draw26%

Plymouth20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchPlymouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.83

Portsmouth

1.54

Plymouth

0.83

Portsmouth creates 86% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 46 away

1.26

creates per match

0.63

1.04

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.26

Plymouth

0.63

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.04

Plymouth

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Plymouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

80%

Portsmouth or Plymouth

74%

Draw or Plymouth

46%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

28%

Plymouth wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

79%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

45%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

20%

Plymouth 1+ goals

56%

Plymouth 2+ goals

20%

Plymouth 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

73%

Plymouth (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 54 matches

Plymouth away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.83 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.26 + Plymouth defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Plymouth attack 0.63 + Portsmouth defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Portsmouth scores more

54%

level

26%

Plymouth scores more

20%

Portsmouth at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Hardie

Plymouth · F

8.2

Match Events

44'

M. Bundu↳ R. Hardie

49'

R. Hardie↳ M. Sorinola

52'

C. Wright← M. Obafemi

55'

K. Gordon← M. Ritchie

55'

C. Bramall← M. Pack

62'

M. O’Mahony← F. Potts

64'

K. Szűcs← Julio Pleguezuelo

65'

67'

77'

86'

86'

89'

90+9'

90+7'

90+6'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthPlymouth

Overview

80%Possession20%

16Total Shots6

1.40Expected Goals (xG)0.25

7Corners0

13Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots6

3On Target3

8Off Target2

5Blocked1

11Inside Box3

5Outside Box3

Passing

80%Possession20%

655Total Passes167

548Accurate Passes74

84%Pass Accuracy44%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Discipline

13Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Plymouth

Plymouth beat Portsmouth 2-1 in Championship on March 12, 2025.

Goals: M. Bundu (44'), R. Hardie (49'), A. Aouchiche (89').

Portsmouth controlled possession (80%) and registered 16 shots to 6.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.

Portsmouth vs Plymouth — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Plymouth