Plymouth 1–0 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Plymouth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portsmouth

M. Obafemi 82'

11/5/2024

Championship · Round 14Home Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Plymouth42%

×Draw28%

Portsmouth31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlymouthExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.08

Plymouth

1.31

Portsmouth

1.08

Plymouth creates 21% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 37 away

1.11

creates per match

0.87

1.30

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Plymouth

1.11

Portsmouth

0.87

allows per match

Plymouth

1.30

Portsmouth

1.51

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Plymouth+0.29scores more

Portsmouth+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plymouth ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Plymouth or draw

69%

Plymouth or Portsmouth

72%

Draw or Portsmouth

58%

Winning margin

Plymouth wins by 2+

19%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Plymouth 1+ goals

73%

Plymouth 2+ goals

38%

Plymouth 3+ goals

14%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

66%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

29%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Plymouth (draw refunded)

58%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plymouth at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 5 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plymouth attack 1.11 + Portsmouth defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.31

Portsmouth attack 0.87 + Plymouth defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Plymouth scores more

42%

level

28%

Portsmouth scores more

31%

Plymouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Plymouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

K. Szűcs

Plymouth · D

7.9

Match Events

4'

25'

34'

60'

62'

62'

C. Wright← R. Al Hajj

65'

T. Devlin← J. Williams

67'

Callum Lang

70'

M. Obafemi← A. Gray

74'

S. Silvera← M. Ritchie

74'

M. O’Mahony← K. Yengi

78'

Freddie Potts

82'

M. Obafemi

85'

C. Saydee← A. Dozzell

85'

O. Moxon← J. Murphy

90'

V. Pálsson← M. Whittaker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PlymouthPortsmouth

Overview

54%Possession46%

10Total Shots14

0.79Expected Goals (xG)0.80

5Corners6

8Fouls21

Shots

10Total Shots14

4On Target4

3Off Target4

3Blocked6

5Inside Box7

5Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

339Total Passes288

250Accurate Passes184

74%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

1.31Goals Prevented1.31

Discipline

8Fouls21

4Yellow Cards2

5Offsides2