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Portsmouth vs Plymouth — League One 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Plymouth
Plymouth
J. Bolton 87'
R. Curtis 86'
L. Jephcott 82', 71'
2/6/2021League OneLeague One · Round 28Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

Portsmouth47%
×Draw25%
Plymouth28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.60
Plymouth
1.19

Portsmouth creates 34% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 115 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.71
Plymouth
1.37

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.00
Plymouth
1.50

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Plymouth+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Plymouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
72%
Portsmouth or Plymouth
75%
Draw or Plymouth
53%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
24%
Plymouth wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
80%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
47%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
22%
Plymouth 1+ goals
70%
Plymouth 2+ goals
33%
Plymouth 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
62%
Plymouth (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 139 matches

Plymouth away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.71 + Plymouth defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Plymouth attack 1.37 + Portsmouth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portsmouth scores more
47%
level
25%
Plymouth scores more
28%

Portsmouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31
L. JephcottPlymouthPlymouth · F
8.3

Match Events

60'
R. Curtis← M. Jacobs
69'
H. White← E. Harrison
69'
N. Ennis← R. Hardie
71'
L. Jephcott
72'
Andy Cannon
82'
L. Jephcott↳ N. Ennis
84'
Tom Naylor
84'
S. Woods← L. Jephcott
86'
R. Curtis↳ C. Johnson
87'
J. Bolton↳ M. Harness
90'
A. Lewis← Panutche Camará

Possession

50%Portsmouth

Shots

27Portsmouth

Pass accuracy

50%Portsmouth

Statistics

PortsmouthPlymouth
Overview
50%Possession50%
27Total Shots9
16Corners5
16Fouls10
Shots
27Total Shots9
7On Target3
7Off Target1
13Blocked5
15Inside Box8
12Outside Box1
Passing
50%Possession50%
377Total Passes373
282Accurate Passes279
75%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls10
2Yellow Cards0

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Plymouth

Portsmouth and Plymouth drew 2-2 in League One on February 6, 2021.

Goals: L. Jephcott (71', 82'), R. Curtis (86'), J. Bolton (87').

Portsmouth controlled possession (50%) and registered 27 shots to 9.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.