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Portsmouth vs Morecambe — League One 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Morecambe
Morecambe
4/10/2023League OneLeague One · Round 41Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Portsmouth60%
×Draw22%
Morecambe18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.94
Morecambe
0.95

Portsmouth creates 104% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 46 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.72
Morecambe
0.89

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.01
Morecambe
2.17

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Morecambe+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Morecambe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
82%
Portsmouth or Morecambe
78%
Draw or Morecambe
40%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
36%
Morecambe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
86%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
58%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
30%
Morecambe 1+ goals
61%
Morecambe 2+ goals
25%
Morecambe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
77%
Morecambe (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Morecambe away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Morecambe defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.94

Morecambe attack 0.89 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Portsmouth scores more
60%
level
22%
Morecambe scores more
18%

Portsmouth at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Morecambe

Portsmouth and Morecambe drew 0-0 in League One on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.