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Morecambe vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Morecambe
Morecambe
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
11/12/2022League OneLeague One · Round 18Mazuma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Morecambe33%
×Draw26%
Portsmouth40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Morecambe
1.24
Portsmouth
1.39

Portsmouth creates 12% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 134 away

creates per match

Morecambe
1.37
Portsmouth
1.34

allows per match

Morecambe
1.43
Portsmouth
1.10

finishing

Morecambe+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Morecambe ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Morecambe or draw
60%
Morecambe or Portsmouth
74%
Draw or Portsmouth
67%

Winning margin

Morecambe wins by 2+
14%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Morecambe 1+ goals
71%
Morecambe 2+ goals
35%
Morecambe 3+ goals
13%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
75%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
40%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Morecambe (draw refunded)
45%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Morecambe at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.43 · 46 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Morecambe attack 1.37 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Morecambe defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Morecambe scores more
33%
level
26%
Portsmouth scores more
40%

Portsmouth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Morecambe vs Portsmouth

Morecambe and Portsmouth drew 1-1 in League One on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Mazuma Stadium in Morecambe, Lancashire.