Portsmouth 1–0 Leicester: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

I. Bowat 63'

4/18/2026

Championship · Round 43Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Portsmouth39%

×Draw26%

Leicester35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.28

Portsmouth

1.38

Leicester

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 18 away

1.49

creates per match

1.45

1.11

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.49

Leicester

1.45

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.11

Leicester

1.26

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.41scores less

Leicester-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

65%

Portsmouth or Leicester

74%

Draw or Leicester

61%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

18%

Leicester wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

75%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

40%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

16%

Leicester 1+ goals

72%

Leicester 2+ goals

37%

Leicester 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

53%

Leicester (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.11 · 25 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.26 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.49 + Leicester defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Leicester attack 1.45 + Portsmouth defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Portsmouth scores more

39%

level

26%

Leicester scores more

35%

Portsmouth at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

I. Bowat

Portsmouth · D

8.5

Match Events

-5'

Hamza Choudhury

8'

A. Segecic← K. Anderson

17'

I. Bowat← T. Devlin

63'

I. Bowat↳ A. Segecic

70'

J. James← H. Choudhury

71'

D. Mukasa← S. Mavididi

75'

Patson Daka

76'

J. Ayew← B. De Cordova-Reid

77'

E. Adams← C. Chaplin

77'

J. Brown←

90+2'

90'

90'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthLeicester

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots14

1.01Expected Goals (xG)0.91

5Corners7

11Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots14

2On Target3

4Off Target5

5Blocked6

9Inside Box7

2Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

257Total Passes297

158Accurate Passes197

61%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.25Goals Prevented-0.25

Discipline

11Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides0