Leicester 1–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Portsmouth

D. Nugent 24'

M. Futacs 20'

12/31/2011

Championship · Round 24King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Leicester45%

×Draw27%

Portsmouth28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.03

Leicester

1.38

Portsmouth

1.03

Leicester creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

1.22

creates per match

0.89

1.17

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Leicester

1.22

Portsmouth

0.89

allows per match

Leicester

1.17

Portsmouth

1.53

+0.60scores more than expected

finishing

+0.23scores more than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.60scores more

Portsmouth+0.23scores more

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

72%

Leicester or Portsmouth

73%

Draw or Portsmouth

55%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

21%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

75%

Leicester 2+ goals

40%

Leicester 3+ goals

16%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

64%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

28%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

62%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.17 · 17 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.22 + Portsmouth defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.38

Portsmouth attack 0.89 + Leicester defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Leicester scores more

45%

level

27%

Portsmouth scores more

28%

Leicester at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

M. Futacs↳ D. Norris

24'

D. Nugent↳ P. Gallagher

70'

J. Beckford← D. Nugent

70'

N. Danns← R. Wellens

86'

L. Dyer← J. Schlupp

Leicester

Portsmouth

13

4

16

5

2

8

15

7

19

A

Norris

18

Kitson

9

⚽

1

3

5

2

6

22

10

19

▼

Wellens

27

▼

Schlupp

7

A

Gallagher

35

⚽

▼

Nugent

70'▲J. Beckford←▼D. Nugent

70'▲N. Danns←▼R. Wellens

86'▲L. Dyer←▼J. Schlupp

Leicester substitutes

20Beckford23Danns11Dyer21Weale9Howard

Portsmouth substitutes

1Ashdown6Hreidarsson10Huseklepp17Williams25Mwaruwari