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Portsmouth vs Forest Green — League One 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Forest Green
Forest Green
4/1/2023League OneLeague One · Round 39Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Portsmouth62%
×Draw22%
Forest Green16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.88
Forest Green
0.85

Portsmouth creates 121% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 23 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.72
Forest Green
0.70

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.01
Forest Green
2.04

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
84%
Portsmouth or Forest Green
78%
Draw or Forest Green
38%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
36%
Forest Green wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
85%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
56%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
29%
Forest Green 1+ goals
57%
Forest Green 2+ goals
21%
Forest Green 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
79%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Forest Green away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Forest Green defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.88

Forest Green attack 0.70 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Portsmouth scores more
62%
level
22%
Forest Green scores more
16%

Portsmouth at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Forest Green

Portsmouth beat Forest Green 1-0 in League One on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.