Forest Green 0–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Portsmouth

10/22/2022

League One · Round 16The Bolt New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Forest Green21%

×Draw25%

Portsmouth54%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.58

Forest Green

0.88

Portsmouth

1.58

Portsmouth creates 80% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 134 away

0.65

creates per match

1.34

1.83

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Forest Green

0.65

Portsmouth

1.34

allows per match

Forest Green

1.83

Portsmouth

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–211%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

46%

Forest Green or Portsmouth

75%

Draw or Portsmouth

79%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

7%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

59%

Forest Green 2+ goals

22%

Forest Green 3+ goals

6%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

79%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

47%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

28%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 0.65 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.88

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Forest Green defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Forest Green scores more

21%

level

25%

Portsmouth scores more

54%

Portsmouth at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff