Portsmouth 1–2 Coventry: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Coventry

M. Kirk 90'

B. Thomas-Asante 56', 30'

10/21/2025

Championship · Round 11Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Portsmouth36%

×Draw26%

Coventry37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.31

Portsmouth

1.28

Coventry

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 17 away

1.44

creates per match

1.47

1.15

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.44

Coventry

1.47

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.15

Coventry

1.12

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

Portsmouth-0.33scores less

Coventry-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

63%

Portsmouth or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

64%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

16%

Coventry wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

72%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

37%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

14%

Coventry 1+ goals

73%

Coventry 2+ goals

38%

Coventry 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

49%

Coventry (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.44 + Coventry defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.28

Coventry attack 1.47 + Portsmouth defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Portsmouth scores more

36%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

37%

Coventry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

B. Thomas-Asante

Coventry · F

7.9

Match Events

30'

B. Thomas-Asante↳ E. Simms

50'

Milan van Ewijk

56'

B. Thomas-Asante↳ E. Simms

63'

T. Sakamoto← E. Mason-Clark

64'

A. Segecic← Yang Min-Hyuk

64'

T. Devlin← Z. Swanson

74'

F. Bianchini← C. Ogilvie

74'

M. Kirk←

75'

J. Allen← V. Torp

80'

H. Matthews← J. Knight

85'

John Swift

88'

K. Kesler-Hayden← M. van Ewijk

88'

J. Bidwell← J. Dasilva

90'

M. Kirk↳ T. Devlin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthCoventry

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots19

0.63Expected Goals (xG)2.41

6Corners5

5Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots19

5On Target7

6Off Target7

4Blocked5

8Inside Box15

7Outside Box4

Passing

57%Possession43%

461Total Passes346

365Accurate Passes257

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

-0.23Goals Prevented-0.23

Discipline

5Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4