Portsmouth 4–1 Coventry: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Coventry

C. Lang 55', 48', 43', 14'

N. Bassette 3'

12/21/2024

Championship · Round 22Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Portsmouth36%

×Draw27%

Coventry37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.29

Portsmouth

1.26

Coventry

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 19 away

1.39

creates per match

1.45

1.14

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.39

Coventry

1.45

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.14

Coventry

1.14

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Portsmouth-0.21scores less

Coventry-0.08on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

63%

Portsmouth or Coventry

73%

Draw or Coventry

64%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

16%

Coventry wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

72%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

36%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

13%

Coventry 1+ goals

72%

Coventry 2+ goals

37%

Coventry 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

49%

Coventry (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.14 · 40 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.14 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.39 + Coventry defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Coventry attack 1.45 + Portsmouth defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Portsmouth scores more

36%

level

27%

Coventry scores more

37%

Coventry at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

49

C. Lang

Portsmouth · M

10.0

Match Events

3'

N. Bassette↳ E. Mason-Clark

14'

C. Lang↳ C. Bishop

32'

Marlon Pack

43'

C. Lang

48'

C. Lang↳ F. Potts

55'

C. Lang

63'

B. Thomas-Asante← E. Mason-Clark

64'

J. Eccles← V. Torp

64'

E. Simms← N. Bassette

64'

J. Latibeaudiere← B. Thomas

71'

P. Lane← J. Murphy

82'

O. Moxon← C. Lang

82'

J. Allen← B. Sheaf

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthCoventry

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots7

2.06Expected Goals (xG)1.71

10Corners2

14Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots7

7On Target3

2Off Target3

3Blocked1

9Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

44%Possession56%

271Total Passes360

168Accurate Passes263

62%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.84Goals Prevented-0.84

Discipline

14Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

5Offsides4

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Coventry

Portsmouth beat Coventry 4-1 in Championship on December 21, 2024.

Goals: N. Bassette (3'), C. Lang (14', 43', 48', 55').

Coventry controlled possession (56%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.

Portsmouth vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Coventry