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Portsmouth vs Blackburn — Championship 2024

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
14:00
Blackburn
Blackburn
9/19/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Fratton Park
Big match
45%
Portsmouth
model favours
45%26%29%
1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Portsmouth45%
×Draw26%
Blackburn29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.48
Blackburn
1.13

Portsmouth creates 31% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 19 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.55
Blackburn
1.14

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.12
Blackburn
1.40

finishing

Portsmouth-0.45scores less
Blackburn+0.07on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Blackburn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
71%
Portsmouth or Blackburn
74%
Draw or Blackburn
55%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
22%
Blackburn wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
77%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
43%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
19%
Blackburn 1+ goals
68%
Blackburn 2+ goals
31%
Blackburn 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
61%
Blackburn (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.12 · 20 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.40 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.55 + Blackburn defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.48

Blackburn attack 1.14 + Portsmouth defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Portsmouth scores more
45%
level
26%
Blackburn scores more
29%

Portsmouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Portsmouth
Balanced
Blackburn
Balanced
47%Possession50%
72%Pass accuracy76%
12.1ShotsBiggest gap10.3
1.18xG1.18
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PortsmouthBlackburn

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Portsmouth
1
Draws
2
Blackburn
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 60%
1–12–11–00–31–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
Blackburn
DLWDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portsmouth vs Blackburn — Match Preview

Portsmouth face Blackburn on September 19, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Portsmouth host Blackburn at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.