Portsmouth 2–1 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Portsmouth

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Blackburn

I. Bowat 79'

C. Lang 62'

Y. Ohashi 36'

12/13/2025

Championship · Round 21Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Portsmouth45%

×Draw26%

Blackburn29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortsmouthExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.13

Portsmouth

1.47

Blackburn

1.13

Portsmouth creates 30% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

1.52

creates per match

1.12

1.13

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Portsmouth

1.52

Blackburn

1.12

allows per match

Portsmouth

1.13

Blackburn

1.42

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Portsmouth-0.38scores less

Blackburn+0.08on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw

71%

Portsmouth or Blackburn

74%

Draw or Blackburn

55%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+

22%

Blackburn wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals

77%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

43%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

18%

Blackburn 1+ goals

68%

Blackburn 2+ goals

31%

Blackburn 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

61%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.13 · 22 matches

Blackburn away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.42 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.52 + Blackburn defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.47

Blackburn attack 1.12 + Portsmouth defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Portsmouth scores more

45%

level

26%

Blackburn scores more

29%

Portsmouth at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

I. Bowat

Portsmouth · D

8.0

Match Events

28'

Yuki Ohashi

35'

Ryan Alebiosu

36'

Y. Ohashi↳ S. Tavares

45+4'

Lewis Miller

46'

C. Bishop← Yang Min-Hyuk

54'

Hayden Matthews

57'

M. Kosznovszky← J. Swift

59'

Callum Lang

62'

C. Lang↳ J. Murphy

70'

M. Baradji← R. Morishita

70'

T. Gardner-Hickman← T. Cantwell

76'

S. Tronstad← S. Tavares

79'

I. Bowat↳ C. Chaplin

84'

A. Henriksson← D. De Neve

84'

M. Gueye← A. Gudjohnsen

90+3'

J. Williams← H. Matthews

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortsmouthBlackburn

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots11

1.77Expected Goals (xG)0.72

7Corners6

9Fouls14

Shots

18Total Shots11

7On Target2

5Off Target6

6Blocked3

12Inside Box9

6Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

360Total Passes314

266Accurate Passes212

74%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

0.45Goals Prevented0.45

Discipline

9Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Blackburn

Portsmouth beat Blackburn 2-1 in Championship on December 13, 2025.

Goals: Y. Ohashi (36'), C. Lang (62'), I. Bowat (79').

Portsmouth controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.

Portsmouth vs Blackburn — Championship 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Blackburn