Blackburn 1–1 Portsmouth: Result & Stats

Blackburn

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Portsmouth

H. Carter 90'

C. Ogilvie 84'

3/7/2026

Championship · Round 36Ewood Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Blackburn47%

×Draw28%

Portsmouth25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BlackburnExpected goals in this matchPortsmouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.90

Blackburn

1.35

Portsmouth

0.90

Blackburn creates 50% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

1.22

creates per match

0.88

0.92

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Blackburn

1.22

Portsmouth

0.88

allows per match

Blackburn

0.92

Portsmouth

1.49

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

Blackburn-0.22scores less

Portsmouth+0.26scores more

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blackburn ↓

Portsmouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Blackburn or draw

75%

Blackburn or Portsmouth

72%

Draw or Portsmouth

53%

Winning margin

Blackburn wins by 2+

22%

Portsmouth wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Blackburn 1+ goals

74%

Blackburn 2+ goals

39%

Blackburn 3+ goals

15%

Portsmouth 1+ goals

59%

Portsmouth 2+ goals

23%

Portsmouth 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Blackburn (draw refunded)

65%

Portsmouth (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blackburn at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.92 · 20 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.49 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blackburn attack 1.22 + Portsmouth defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

Portsmouth attack 0.88 + Blackburn defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Blackburn scores more

47%

level

28%

Portsmouth scores more

25%

Blackburn at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

R. Morishita

Blackburn · F

8.2

Match Events

62'

M. Baradji← A. Forshaw

63'

A. Gudjohnsen← Y. Ohashi

67'

C. Shaughnessy← R. Poole

70'

A. Segecic← C. Chaplin

75'

D. De Neve← Y. Ribeiro

75'

K. Montgomery← T. Gardner-Hickman

81'

H. Blair← G. Caballero

81'

83'

84'

90+4'

90'

H. Carter↳ R. Morishita

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BlackburnPortsmouth

Overview

43%Possession57%

10Total Shots14

1.20Expected Goals (xG)0.57

4Corners5

8Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots14

1On Target1

6Off Target8

3Blocked5

7Inside Box9

3Outside Box5

Passing

43%Possession57%

365Total Passes501

258Accurate Passes399

71%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

-0.67Goals Prevented-0.67

Discipline

8Fouls6

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides3

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Portsmouth

Blackburn and Portsmouth drew 1-1 in Championship on March 7, 2026.

Goals: C. Ogilvie (84'), H. Carter (90').

Portsmouth controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Ewood Park in Blackburn.

Blackburn vs Portsmouth — Championship 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Blackburn vs Portsmouth