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Portsmouth vs AFC Wimbledon — League One 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
1/19/2021League OneLeague One · Round 23Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Portsmouth53%
×Draw24%
AFC Wimbledon23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.66
AFC Wimbledon
1.00

Portsmouth creates 66% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 110 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.72
AFC Wimbledon
0.99

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.01
AFC Wimbledon
1.59

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
77%
Portsmouth or AFC Wimbledon
76%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
47%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
28%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
81%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
49%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
23%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
63%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
26%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
70%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.59 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.99 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Portsmouth scores more
53%
level
24%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
23%

Portsmouth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Portsmouth 4–0 AFC Wimbledon

Portsmouth beat AFC Wimbledon 4-0 in League One on January 19, 2021.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.