Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AFC Wimbledon vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
5/1/2021League OneLeague One · Round 45Plough Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

AFC Wimbledon30%
×Draw27%
Portsmouth43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.13
Portsmouth
1.40

Portsmouth creates 24% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 134 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Portsmouth
1.34

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.45
Portsmouth
1.10

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
57%
AFC Wimbledon or Portsmouth
73%
Draw or Portsmouth
70%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
12%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
68%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
31%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
11%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
75%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
41%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
41%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.15 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
30%
level
27%
Portsmouth scores more
43%

Portsmouth at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: AFC Wimbledon 1–3 Portsmouth

Portsmouth beat AFC Wimbledon 3-1 in League One on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Plough Lane in London.