Porto U19 1–1 Salzburg U19: Result & Stats

Porto U19

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Salzburg U19

Fábio Vieira 39' (pen)

D. Affengruber 23'

2/12/2020

UEFA Youth League · Play-offsCentro de Treinos e Formação Desportiva PortoGaia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Porto U1942%

×Draw23%

Salzburg U1935%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Porto U19Expected goals in this matchSalzburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.63

Porto U19

1.80

Salzburg U19

1.63

Porto U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

2.16

creates per match

2.00

1.26

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Porto U19

2.16

Salzburg U19

2.00

allows per match

Porto U19

1.26

Salzburg U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Porto U19+0.00on par

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Porto U19 ↓

Salzburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Porto U19 or draw

65%

Porto U19 or Salzburg U19

77%

Draw or Salzburg U19

58%

Winning margin

Porto U19 wins by 2+

22%

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Porto U19 1+ goals

83%

Porto U19 2+ goals

54%

Porto U19 3+ goals

27%

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

80%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

48%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Porto U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Porto U19 at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Salzburg U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Porto U19 attack 2.16 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.80

Salzburg U19 attack 2.00 + Porto U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Porto U19 scores more

42%

level

23%

Salzburg U19 scores more

35%

Porto U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Porto U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

W. Nunes Silva

23'

D. Affengruber↳ A. Prass

36'

F. Vieira

37'

L. Sucic

39'

Fábio VieiraPenalty

56'

J. C. Adamu

70'

N. Seiwald

71'

Rafael Pereira← Gonçalo Borges

84'

A. Oroz← B. Okoh

86'

R. Pinheiro

90+3'

P. Pokorny

90'

Manuel Mané← Tiago Matos

Porto

Salzburg

1

Antosch

4

⚽

Affengrub

3

Dedić

24

Wallison

33

▼

Okoh

27

A

13

6

25

9

7

1

3

6

▼

4

5

2

11

10

⚽

Vieira

8

Valente

7

▼

Borges

9

Moreira

Manager: Tulipa

71'▲Rafael Pereira←▼Gonçalo Borges

90'▲Manuel Mané←▼Tiago Matos

Porto U19 substitutes

15Pereira14Mané13Cardoso17Conceição18Auzmendi12Estevao16Sani

Manager: F. Kramer

84'▲A. Oroz←▼B. Okoh

Salzburg U19 substitutes

18Oroz37Bukta23Böckle31Schröcker29Šeško16Major15Anselm